Ethiopia vs Kenya: economic convergence
If Ethiopia grew 4.7% a year and Kenya 2.5% a year, Ethiopia would catch up with Kenya on GDP per capita (PPP) in about 30 years, around 2056. This is a scenario, not a forecast.
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Latest data (2025)
| Country | GDP per capita (PPP) |
|---|---|
| Ethiopia | $3,095 |
| Kenya | $5,995 |
Ethiopia is at 52% of Kenya's level.
Scenario
Ethiopia grows 4.7% a year (trailing 10-year average) and Kenya grows 2.5% a year (trailing 10-year average). A scenario, not a forecast: the result follows only from the stated growth rates.
| Year | Ethiopia | Kenya |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3,240 | $6,145 |
| 2031 | $4,077 | $6,953 |
| 2036 | $5,129 | $7,866 |
| 2041 | $6,453 | $8,900 |
| 2046 | $8,119 | $10,070 |
| 2051 | $10,215 | $11,393 |
| 2056 | $12,853 | $12,890 |
| 2061 | $16,170 | $14,584 |
| 2062 | $16,930 | $14,949 |
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Source: World Bank (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD). Mountain to Climb · World Bank data · Scenario: Ethiopia 4.7%, Kenya 2.5%