Kenya vs South Africa: economic convergence
If Kenya grew 2.5% a year and South Africa -0.7% a year, Kenya would catch up with South Africa on GDP per capita (PPP) in about 25 years, around 2051. This is a scenario, not a forecast.
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Latest data (2025)
| Country | GDP per capita (PPP) |
|---|---|
| Kenya | $5,995 |
| South Africa | $13,592 |
Kenya is at 44% of South Africa's level.
Scenario
Kenya grows 2.5% a year (trailing 10-year average) and South Africa grows -0.7% a year (trailing 10-year average). A scenario, not a forecast: the result follows only from the stated growth rates.
| Year | Kenya | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $6,145 | $13,497 |
| 2031 | $6,953 | $13,031 |
| 2036 | $7,866 | $12,581 |
| 2041 | $8,900 | $12,147 |
| 2046 | $10,070 | $11,728 |
| 2051 | $11,393 | $11,323 |
| 2056 | $12,890 | $10,932 |
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Source: World Bank (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD). Mountain to Climb · World Bank data · Scenario: Kenya 2.5%, South Africa -0.7%