China vs United States: economic convergence
If China grew 5.4% a year and United States 1.8% a year, China would catch up with United States on GDP per capita (PPP) in about 31 years, around 2057. This is a scenario, not a forecast.
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Latest data (2025)
| Country | GDP per capita (PPP) |
|---|---|
| China | $25,067 |
| United States | $76,931 |
China is at 33% of United States's level.
Scenario
China grows 5.4% a year (trailing 10-year average) and United States grows 1.8% a year (trailing 10-year average). A scenario, not a forecast: the result follows only from the stated growth rates.
| Year | China | United States |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $26,420 | $78,316 |
| 2031 | $34,367 | $85,623 |
| 2036 | $44,703 | $93,611 |
| 2041 | $58,149 | $102,345 |
| 2046 | $75,639 | $111,894 |
| 2051 | $98,390 | $122,333 |
| 2056 | $127,983 | $133,747 |
| 2057 | $134,894 | $136,155 |
| 2061 | $166,478 | $146,226 |
| 2063 | $184,943 | $151,537 |
Use this data
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Source: World Bank (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD). Mountain to Climb · World Bank data · Scenario: China 5.4%, United States 1.8%