India vs China: economic convergence
If India grew 4.8% a year and China 5.4% a year, India would never catch up with China on GDP per capita (PPP).
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Latest data (2025)
| Country | GDP per capita (PPP) |
|---|---|
| India | $10,039 |
| China | $25,067 |
India is at 40% of China's level.
Scenario
India grows 4.8% a year (trailing 10-year average) and China grows 5.4% a year (trailing 10-year average). A scenario, not a forecast: the result follows only from the stated growth rates.
| Year | India | China |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $10,521 | $26,420 |
| 2031 | $13,300 | $34,367 |
| 2036 | $16,814 | $44,703 |
| 2041 | $21,256 | $58,149 |
| 2046 | $26,871 | $75,639 |
| 2051 | $33,969 | $98,390 |
| 2056 | $42,943 | $127,983 |
| 2061 | $54,287 | $166,478 |
| 2066 | $68,629 | $216,550 |
| 2071 | $86,759 | $281,684 |
| 2076 | $109,678 | $366,408 |
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Source: World Bank (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD). Mountain to Climb · World Bank data · Scenario: India 4.8%, China 5.4%